ANALYSIS: Gen Muhoozi’s Withdrawal & Endorsement of Museveni: What It Means for Uganda’s 2026 Elections

Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), General Muhoozi Kainerugaba on Sunday left millions of his supporters heartbroken after he announced that he would not be taking part in the 2026 general elections as they had anticipated.

“I would like to announce that I will not be on the ballot paper in 2026. Almighty God told me to focus on His Army first. So, I fully endorse President Yoweri Museveni in the next elections,” Gen Muhoozi who also doubles as Chairman of the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU), tweeted.

He went on to urge his supporters who had until Sunday morning, made social media platforms busy with the hashtag #MK2026, to join the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party if they are to take part in the elections.

Muhoozi’s unexpected decision not to contest in Uganda’s 2026 presidential election has significantly altered the political landscape. As chairman of the PLU, Muhoozi had been seen as a likely successor to his father, President Yoweri Museveni. Many PLU members had been mobilizing for a Muhoozi candidacy, with coordinators being appointed across the country in preparation for what they believed could be a political transition. However, with his announcement, that hope has now been dashed, leaving many in the PLU disillusioned and uncertain about their political future.

A Disappointed Patriotic League

Muhoozi’s withdrawal has shaken the PLU, a movement that had been building momentum for his anticipated run. From the comments on social media, it is clear that the mood is one of disappointment. Coordinators and supporters across Uganda were gearing up for a campaign they believed would see Muhoozi challenge for the presidency. Now, without a candidate to rally behind, there is a fear that the PLU’s mobilization efforts may falter and that the group will go into disarray. By the time Uganda heads to the polls in 2026, the PLU could find itself with dwindling support and little to show for its early preparations.

Most of its top leaders have been mute about Gen Muhoozi’s statement, with the exception of State Minister Balaam Barugahare who also serves as the PLU Vice Chairman for Western Uganda.

President Yoweri Museveni (C) with PLU top leadership

“I fully declare my unwavering support for General Muhoozi’s endorsement of President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni’s candidacy in 2026. As our esteemed leader, your guidance is invaluable, and I pledge to stand firmly behind your declaration. We look forward to President Museveni’s final term and eagerly await General Kainerugaba’s leadership in the 2031 elections when mzee finally retires . May God bless you, our leader, for respecting divine guidance,” Balaam tweeted.

Many within the PLU had hoped that Muhoozi’s leadership would represent a generational shift in Uganda’s politics, bringing fresh energy and new ideas to the fore. His decision to instead endorse his father, President Museveni, has left some feeling disillusioned and uncertain about the future direction of the movement. If the PLU cannot regroup and re-energize, it risks losing its influence in the political arena.

Their only leash, at any grasp of influence they hoped for under him, now remains in following his guidance that they participate in the elections irrespective of his decision.

Museveni’s Position Strengthened

While the PLU may face internal struggles emanating from disappointment, President Museveni’s position has been strengthened by his son’s endorsement. 38 years after capturing power following a five-year guerrilla war, Museveni has maintained a firm grip on power within the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) where he also doubles as its National Chairman. Muhoozi’s decision to step back from the race eliminates any doubt about him steadying the ship and signals continuity within the NRM.

President Museveni’s fervour has been kept alive thanks to mobilisation within the NRM particularly the Office of the NRM National Chairman (ONC) managed by SPA/PA Hajjat Hadijah Namyalo Uzeiye who championed the #TovaKuMain (Loosely translated as Stay on course) campaign across the country that saw different regions endorse his 2026 candidature even before he reveals his intentions to seek another term.

ONC Manager SPA/PA Hajjat Hadijah Namyalo’s Tova Ku Main has rallied grassroot support and kept the momentum for President Museveni

This campaign has been key in keeping momentum and rallying grassroot support for President Museveni in addition to acting as an attraction point for his wide base including youth groups, local leaders, and rural voters who view President Museveni as a guarantor of stability and continuity.

Close to a fortnight ago, a group of Ghetto Youths stormed the office demanding that they wanted President Yoweri Museveni to carry on as President. To have youths demanding President Museveni who celebrated his 80th birthday last Sunday, goes a long way in shattering the belief that biology is affecting ideology.

The Opposition: Museveni v Bobi Wine II?

With Muhoozi out of the race, the battle for Uganda’s top seat now shifts squarely between President Museveni and the opposition, led by Robert Kyagulanyi, aka Bobi Wine. As the leader of the National Unity Platform (NUP), Bobi Wine will be hoping to build on his support that saw him garner 3 million votes in the last general elections. However, his message targeting Museveni’s long stay is likely to hit a snag considering it is the youth who the president fondly describes as bazzukulu, behind the demand to have him stay on as president. It is worth noting that PLU that is largely made up of young people, is expected to wholly rally behind President Museveni.

In addition, the opposition has in the recent past been plagued by massive rifts that have undoubtedly eaten into their base. Mathias Mpuuga, the former Leader of Opposition in Parliament, seems to have has broken ranks with Bobi Wine. Sources say NRM strategists will be seeking to reach out to him for the possibility of working with Museveni’s camp considering where he hails. Mpuuga comes from Masaka, the bedrock of Buganda that President Museveni lost in the last general elections

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

The announcement that a particular person will contest in an election, has a an impact on its relations with the outside world as it eliminates all form of speculation, reduces uncertainty and reassures partners of continuity. Gen Muhoozi’s announcement will build that confidence in the Kampala administration from especially investors who associate President Museveni’s leadership with stability. The country has been getting plaudits on its investment environment in the recent past

Also, Uganda is involved various regional peace keeping missions from Somalia to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and any announcement of continuity in that area, allays all fears of possible chaos in the region.